Intrade Numbers Show Scott Brown Blowout

by Lee Doren on January 18, 2010

For those of you who are unfamiliar with Intrade, it is a stock market in Europe where people purchase “stock” in the likelihood that some political event will happen. While these are not actual political polls of flesh and blood people, using a random sample, some argue that Intrade is the best way to judge the result of any election. The basis for this argument is that people usually do more research if they actually have to bet their own money on the outcome of the race. Moreover, all political spin is removed once someone fears that he or she may lose an investment.

To be honest, just one week ago I thought Scott Brown had a shot at winning the Massachusetts Senate race. But, would I have bet money on it (aside from the questionable legality)? Probably not.

With Massachusetts being such a Democratic State, one would think that replacing Ted Kennedy with another Democrat was just a formality. However, Scott Brown ran an outstanding campaign, win or lose, and Coakley did not realize that she would actually have to earn her votes until it was too late.

Well, from the chart below, it looks like some Europeans just earned a nice return betting on Scott Brown.

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